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28-Jan-2016

DIB 4Q15 first glance: Earnings miss on lower fees and weaker income from subsidiaries

Net profit down 11% Q-o-Q, Cash dividend AED0.45/share. DIB reported a net profit of AED865 million for 4Q2015, -11% Q-o-Q and +22.4% Y-o-Y. The bank’s earnings fell short of our AED957 million expectations due to lower-than-expected fees and weaker income contribution from subsidiaries. DIB’s earnings were however in-line with consensus estimate of AED868 million. DIB announced a cash dividend of AED0.45/share (pay-out c50%) versus AED0.40/share, which was in-line with our AED0.45/share expectation.   Our view of the results: A mixed set of results. Loan growth continues to be robust (5.3% Q-o-Q and +31.4% Y-o-Y), however spreads came under pressure and fee income weakened sequentially. Provisioning was lower-than-expected as the NPA ratio decreased to 5.0% from 5.9% in 3Q2015. Although DIB’s cash dividend was in-line with expectations, the bank indicated that it is considering raising issued capital which we believe is likely to be carried out via a rights issue. DIB’s capitalization level – CAR of 15.7% - is above central bank’s minimum of 12.0%, however we believe this level of capital is stretched in light of management’s ambitious growth plans and upcoming Basel III regulations. We have a Neutral rating on the stock.     Main positives: i) strong loan growth (+5.3% Q-o-Q, +31.4% Y-o-Y); and ii) improved credit quality metrics (NPA ratio down to 5.0% from 5.9% as of 3Q2015); and main negatives: i) pressure on spreads (3.25% in 4Q2015 versus 3.28% in 3Q2015); and ii)weak fee income (-20.6% Q-o-Q). (Company disclosure, Shabbir Malik)  

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