2016 guidance: i)Loan growth 10-15% versus 31.4% in 2015; ii) NPL ratio c4.0% versus c5.0% in 2015; iii) ROA slightly lower at 2.3% - 2.5% versus 2.5% in 2015; iv) ROE 17.0%-18.0% versus c20.0% in 2015 (slight impact of capital increase); and v)NIM 3.25-3.50% versus 3.76% in 2015 Loan growth: Management is upbeat about DIB’s loan growth prospects in 2016. In the corporate segment, DIB will continue to focus on new-to-bank sectors - aviation, health care, education, tourism and hospitality. In the retail segment, DIB will aim to grow by cross-selling retail products to its existing customer base. NIM outlook: Management cut its NIM target for 2016 citing continued pressure on liquidity in the system which would impact cost of funds. Fee income weakness temporary: Fee income was weak in 4Q2015 (down 21% Q-o-Q). Management stated that a dip in fee income in one quarter is not indicative of a trend and it expects fee income to recover from 2016. Asset quality: SME loans account for less than 1% of the loan book. In light of the decline in real estate prices, DIB has been very selective in terms of new lending to the real estate sector and focused on diversifying into other segments to mitigate the risks to the bank from the real estate sector. Management expects DIB’s cost of risk to remain stable in 2016 in the 60-65 bps range. Capital increase in the pipeline – rights among options being considered: The bank will ask for approval from its shareholders to raise capital. Management did not disclose the amount and the structure. DIB stated that it still has headroom to increase capital via a Tier-1 sukuk. Management also stated that a rights issue is one of the options that it will consider, as it looks to maintain the above-sector-average loan growth trend in 2016. DIB added that it is also open to selling its non-core assets. (Company, Shabbir Malik)
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