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06-Mar-2016

Edita 4Q15 pre-minority earnings surge 33% Y-o-Y on higher gross margin, lower taxes; revenue, SG&A costs disappoint

Edita reported 4Q15 headline pre-minority earnings growth of 33% Y-o-Y to EGP137 million mainly driven by a higher gross margins and lower taxes (on Egypt's tax rate reduction to 22.5%). For FY2015 headline earnings grew 30% Y-o-Y while recurring earnings (excluding FX, provisions, etc.) were up 26% Y-o-Y and came in 5% lower than our estimate mainly on higher-than-expected SG&A costs (miss could have been more substantial if it weren’t for lower net interest costs & tax charges .  Revenue growth slowed to 14% Y-o-Y (from 20% in 3Q15) during the quarter as cake sales (c48% of 4Q15 revenue) fell 8% Y-o-Y due to the delisting of the EGP0.5/pack Twinkies SKU and upsizing to the EGP1/pack one. Croissant (c40%) continued to drive top-line growth with the segment’s revenue advancing an impressive 57% Y-o-Y as utilisation averaged 99% despite adding two lines in 1H2015. For FY2015, revenue grew 16% Y-o-Y to EGP2.23bn (-5% vs. our estimate) . Average ex-factory price per pack increased 9% Y-o-Y in 2015 mainly on the Twinkies upsizing. 4Q2015 headline gross profit, however, grew 22% Y-o-Y with the margin advancing c2.8pp Y-o-Y on low commodity prices (direct material costs up only 8% Y-o-Y) and portfolio migration to higher priced SKUs. All segments saw Y-o-Y improvement in gross margin with candy and cake seeing the biggest jump (the latter due to Twinkies upsizing). For FY2015, headline gross profit grew 20% Y-o-Y with gross margin advancing c1.4pp Y-o-Y. SG&A costs growth in 4Q2015 was high at 28% Y-o-Y on a 41% Y-o-Y jump in selling & distribution costs (c50% of total SG&A) on increased direct sales & the launch of two new distribution centres in the quarter (bringing total to 20) as well as a 47% increase in G&A costs (31% of total) on higher salaries & wages. For FY2015, SG&A costs jumped 31% Y-o-Y driving a c1pp decline in EBITDA margin to 23.2% Y-o-Y with EBITDA growing only 11% Y-o-Y  (-9% versus estimate).   Overall a solid results set especially given the robust growth in the croissant segment (highest margin division). We are not too alarmed by the cake revenue weakness as the market is adjusting to the new price point of the key Twinkies product (applied in late Sept. 2015). However, the uptick in SG&A costs (the main negative for 2015) after growth easing in 3Q15 is a key concern. The company's BoD proposed a cash DPS of EGP0.223/share (lower than our estimate of EGP0.4), implying a DPO of 23% and a dividend yield of 0.8%. The BoD is also proposing a 1:1 stock dividend. Both dividends are subject to AGM approval. (Company Disclosure, Hatem Alaa, Nada Amin)   Edita Food Industries: EGP29.46 as of 3 March 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: EGP33.00 per share, MCap: USD1,365 million, EFID EY / EFID.CA

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