DP World throughput growth slows down to 1.3% Y-o-Y in 4Q2015, moderately miss
Volume growth slowed down in 4Q2015, up only 1.3% Y-o-Y on a consolidated basis (versus 4.5% in 1Q2015, 2.6% in 2Q2015, 2.6% in 3Q2015), slightly below our estimate (-3%), and 1.2% on a gross basis (versus 4.4% in 1Q2015, 4.0% in 2Q2015, 2.6% in 3Q2015). Volume growth has been ongoing for eight quarters in a row, but at a slower pace since 1Q2015. The UAE showed a decline of 2.9% Y-o-Y to 3.73 million TEU; its first quarterly decline since 1Q2013. 2015 volume grew 2.7% on a consolidated basis (+1.7% LFL) and 3.0% on a gross basis (2.4+% LFL). Growth in 2015 was largely driven by Europe and UAE terminals. UAE handled 15.6 million TEU, up 2.3% Y-o-Y; utilisation at Jebel Ali remained high at approximately 90% despite softer volumes in Q42015. Management commented that 2H2015 was difficult for global trade operators, as various economic headwinds including currency weakness and lower commodity prices adversely impacted trade growth. Despite the uncertain near-term macro environment, and given the high utilisation at DP World portfolio, management remains confident on the medium to long-term outlook and continues to invest to meet future capacity requirements. While trading conditions in 2016 are expected to remain challenging, it believes a portfolio focused towards faster growing markets and origin & destination cargo, coupled with the addition of new capacity can continue to outperform the market. Management expects new capacity at Rotterdam (Netherlands), Mumbai (India), Prince Rupert (Canada) and Yarimca (Turkey) to deliver a full year contribution to 2016 throughput. The third berth at London Gateway (UK) is scheduled to open in mid-2016, adding 600k TEU of new capacity and the additional 2 million TEU at T3 in Jebel Ali will now be operational in 2H2016 (delayed from 2H2015). (source: company release, Wafaa Baddour) DP World: USD17.82 as of 8 February 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: USD25.5 per share, MCap: USD14,797 million, DPW DU / DPW DI
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