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25-Apr-2016

Zain Group 1Q2016 net income slightly misses on FX losses; operationally in line

Revenue – KWD277 mn, -1% Y-o-Y, -2% Q-o-Q, -1% vs. EFGe EBITDA margin –44.4%, +2.4pp Y-o-Y, -0.4pp Q-o-Q, +0.4pp vs. EFGe Net Income – KWD37 mn, -10% Y-o-Y, +2% Q-o-Q, -5% vs. EFGe   Zain Group released its 1Q2016 preliminary figures with net income of KWD37 million, slightly below our estimate of KWD39 million by 5% despite its top-line and EBITDA coming in exactly in line with our estimates. The miss was mainly due to a KWD10.6 million (USD35 million) FX loss incurred in Iraq and Sudan which we did not forecast. Overall we view the results as broadly uninspiring. We remain Buyers of Zain Group as we continue to believe that the FX risks and a weak Iraqi operation are priced in and we view the current multiples as attractive. The stock currently trades at a 2016e P/E of 7.6x, implying a 32% discount to our MENA telecoms coverage. However, we see no triggers for the stock in the short to medium term.   On the operating level, group revenue came in at KWD277 million, exactly in line with our estimate, stable Y-o-Y (-70 bps) and marginally down 2% Q-o-Q. The quarterly decline is a result of: i) weak performance in Iraq due to strong price-based competition, the continued social unrest and the implementation of the VAT; and ii) strong price-based competition in Kuwait. This was slightly offset by strong data revenue in Kuwait, Jordan and Sudan. Group data revenue now accounts for 21% of total revenue versus 19% last year and 20% last quarter. EBITDA came in at KWD123 million, also in line with our estimate and implying an EBITDA margin of 44.4%. (Omar Maher, Karim Riad, Company disclosure)  

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