SAMA released its January 2016 monthly bulletin on 28 February 2016. Below we summarise our key takeaways for point-of-sale (POS) and ATM withdrawal data: 1) The value of point-of-sale (POS) transactions rose 6% Y-o-Y in January 2016 (-1% M-o-M) maintaining momentum versus December 2015, while total ATM cash withdrawals grew 8% Y-o-Y (flat M-o-M) accelerating from a flattish Y-o-Y trend the prior month; 2) Combined, POS & ATM withdrawals value grew 8% Y-o-Y during the month (-1% M-o-M), mainly on the pickup in ATM withdrawals. The figure comes in line with the 2015 average of c9% Y-o-Y.    We had previously noted that all eyes would be on this month’s data set for the first signs of the impact of the recent subsidy reforms (enacted end of Dec. 2015) on domestic consumption. So far, the impact seems to be fairly contained with relatively limited effect on spending, which is positive in our view. The negative impact is likely more pronounced on larger ticket items (such as electronics, etc), while staple goods’ demand outlook should remain fairly intact. (SAMA)