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26-Apr-2016

High level strategy outlined but details still missing; reiterate UW

Saudi Arabia announced its 2030 vision, which was approved by the cabinet yesterday. In line with our expectations the Vision document put recent statements on Aramco, increasing non-oil revenues and other reforms in the context of a plan for a ‘post-oil’ Saudi Arabia. However, the document did not provide detail on implementation, such as those relating to subsidy reforms for example, this might have to wait for the National Transformation Plan (NTP) launch in May, or early June. As such there is little for investors to act on for now, and 1Q16 earnings are already priced in, in our view.   Although the number of earnings beats in 1Q16 was the largest in several years in KSA, earnings for the 49 stocks under our coverage were down 4% Y-o-Y in 1Q2016. However, Bloomberg’s 2016 consensus EPS is still calling for 12% earnings growth in Tadawul, which we believe is unlikely, putting 2016e multiple at 14.2x (15.8x 2015 earnings). Following the recent 12% rally since April’s low, Saudi Arabia is trading at a 36% premium to MENA (excl. KSA) and 15% premium to EM. We believe such a valuation premium is unjustified, especially when the country is undergoing a transformation strategy that could be disruptive for many industries/companies. We reiterate our Underweight rating on KSA believing that the current rally is not sustainable, which is being driven by retail net buying (cUSD708mn during the week ending 21 April 2016).     Note: The vision has a dedicated website and a full 86 pages document outlining the key themes, goals and commitments.  (Saudi Vision 2030, SPA, Mohamad Al Hajj)

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