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13-Mar-2016

HDB standalone net interest income and loan growth fairly strong; bottom line likely brought down by one-offs

Housing & Development Bank (HDB) released its Board of Directors minutes on 10 March, reporting standalone 4Q2015 net income of EGP91 million, up 27% Y-o-Y and 16% Q-o-Q.  The Q-o-Q earnings growth was strong, but 3Q2015 earnings were fairly low after HDB took a one-off provisioning charge for potential tax liabilities. We believe that 4Q2015 earnings could have also been negatively impacted by one-offs.  Standalone financial statements for HDB include the bank and real estate development on land directly owned by HDB. Standalone statements do not include HDB’s associate Hyde Park and other associates and subsidiaries of the bank that operate in the real estate and financial services segment. Our net income forecasts for HDB are on a consolidated basis (EGP194 million in 4Q2015), but we believe it is also worth highlighting the stand-alone trends for the bank. Consolidated statements tend to be published much later than standalone financial statements.   On a standalone basis, net interest income growth continues to be impressive, up 83% Y-o-Y, although 5% lower Q-o-Q from an exceptionally strong 3Q2015. We believe this surge was boosted by the free deposits that HDB collects from customers taking part in land auctions conducted by NUCA. These deposits are free-funding for the bank and are usually placed in T-Bills.  Pre-tax income came in 8% lower Y-o-Y but 16% higher Q-o-Q. Growth in gross loans was fairly strong at 5% Q-o-Q and 16% Y-o-Y. Deposit growth was solid at 3% Q-o-Q and 22% Y-o-Y. Deposits for HDB include only customer deposits, and exclude short-term funds linked to NUCA auctions.   Dividends: The Board of Directors recommends a cash DPS of EGP1.50 for 2015, flat Y-o-Y, but below our estimate of EGP1.60. The recommended dividend implies a payout ratio of 38.6% based on the 2015 standalone net income before profit sharing (compared to 62.0% in 2014) and a dividend yield of 7.9% at the current share price of EGP19.03. (company, Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, Rajae Aadel)   Housing & Dev. Bank: EGP19.03 as of 9 March 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP29.65 per share, MCap: USD307 million, HDBK EY / HDBK.CA

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