GTH shareholders approve interest rate cut on VIP loan to 11.5% from 12.5% p.a. – positive for the stock
We attended GTH’s AGM and EGM in which shareholders approved cutting the interest rate on VimpelCom’s (VIP) outstanding shareholder loan to 11.5% p.a. from 12.5% previously, which takes effect immediately. Shareholders have authorised the following: I. Entering into a new unsecured revolving credit facility of up to USD200 million at an interest rate not exceeding 11.5% p.a. on drawn amounts, in addition to a commitment fee of 0.30% p.a. on undrawn amounts. The facility’s maturity may not exceed seven years from the date of the signing of the contract. This is aimed at providing GTH with an additional line of liquidity in case it needs any additional financing at any point, but it will not be utilised unless there is a need for it II. Borrowing a maximum of USD1,200 million from GTH Finance (fully-owned subsidiary) at a maximum interest rate of 11.5% p.a. and a maximum maturity of seven years from the date of signing the agreement. The company has obtained the approval for this for this facility in case it decides to seek a refinancing for the existing shareholder loan from external sources, which may or may not be done with a guarantee from VIP Our view: We see shareholders’ approval as a positive step towards beginning to address one of our key concerns on the stock, namely the expensive pricing of the shareholder loan. Reducing the interest rate to 11.5% would have a minimal impact on our valuation, but it would lead to c40% improvement in our 2016e earnings forecast with a net saving of about USD11 million for the year. A quicker return to profitability would lead to better investor sentiment towards the stock, in our view. We continue to believe the interest rate could drop further than 11.5% when the company refinances the shareholder loan ahead of its maturity date (May 2017). We reiterate our Buy rating on GTH and we highlight it as one of our tactical picks for 1Q2016. (GTH, Omar Maher, Karim Riad) Global Telecom Holding: USD1.65 per GDR / EGP3.06 per share as of 31 March 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: USD2.72 per GDR / EGP4.25 per share, MCap: USD1,726 million, GLTD LI / GLTDQ.L
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