Commercial International Bank (CIB) will release its 4Q2015 results today, 10 February, at around 11:00 pm, Cairo time. Our net income forecast for 4Q2015 is EGP1,009 million (-2% Y-o-Y and -24% Q-o-Q; 3Q2015 net income was a high base as the new lower 22.5% corporate tax rate was applied retroactively for 9M2015). Our FY2015 net income forecast is EGP4,593 million (+23% Y-o-Y), broadly in line with management guidance of EGP4.5-4.6 billion. Bloomberg consensus estimates are EGP4,782 million for FY2015 and EGP1,199 million for 4Q2015.   Citi’s retail business and capital gain on disposal of life insurance associate will be likely booked in 4Q2015: The consolidation of Citi’s retail loan portfolio, which will add c3% to CIB’s total loans, and the disposal of CIB’s life insurance associate, which will lead to a capital gain of cEGP294 million should be both reflected in 4Q2015. CIB’s management has previously mentioned, however, that the capital gain from the disposal of the insurance associate should have no impact on the bottom-line, as CIB is likely to use capital gains to book additional provisions.   We expect strong loan growth of 23% Y-o-Y, but focus will be on management’s outlook for 2016: We forecast 4.7% Q-o-Q loan growth in 4Q2015, and 23% Y-o-Y. We downgraded (at end-2015) our 2016 loan growth forecast for CIB to 16% from 25%, as continued FX shortage and disruption to imports caused delays to corporates’ expansion plans, in our view.   NIMs holding up well in Egypt banks’ results so far: We estimate a 9% Q-o-Q decline in net interest income in 4Q2015, compared to 8% Q-o-Q growth in 3Q2015. We factor in net interest margin compression, mainly due to upward pressure in funding costs. However, results for QNB Al Ahly and for Credit Agricole Egypt (preliminary numbers) have shown healthy growth in net interest income in 4Q2015, and widening net interest margins compared to 3Q2015. We believe net interest income and revenues could be areas of positive surprises in CIB’s 4Q2015 results. (Company disclosure, Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, CFA)   CIB: EGP32.99 as of 09 February 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP44.43 per share, MCap: USD4,833 million, COMI EY / COMI.CA