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21-Apr-2016

Chemanol 1Q2016 first glance: Heavy losses continue to play out; in line with EFGe, reaffirming our Sell call

Net Loss – SAR31.3 million, versus SAR15 million losses during 1Q2015, SAR60 million in losses in 4Q2015, and in line with EFGe SAR29.4 million loss estimate Revenues – SAR159 million, -19% Y-o-Y, -5% Q-o-Q, -1.5% versus EFGe Gross profit – SAR5.4 million, -78% Y-o-Y, and versus losses of SAR20.7 million in 4Q2015, and -50% below EFG's gross profit estimate of only SAR11 million Operating Loss – SAR21.9 million, versus losses of SAR6.3 million in 1Q2015, a loss of SAR54 million in 4Q2015, and in line with EFGe's loss estimate of SAR21.4 million   Chemanol reported its 1Q2016 financial results, showing continued losses with bottom-line coming in at a loss of SAR31.3 million, broadly in line with EFGe. The poor set of results was evident throughout the company's operations as i) revenues were down 5% Q-o-Q, likely on weaker prices of methanol and formaldehyde derivatives; and ii) weaker raw material prices, as we had anticipated and also mentioned in the earnings release, were not sufficient enough drive any meaningful recovery in margins (gross margin came in at a mere 3.4%). Overall, the company was unable to make a profit even as high up as the operating level, which highlights its inability to operate economically in the current market conditions.   We think that the weak set of results reaffirms our views that Chemanol will continue to suffer in the current weak price environment, especially as its products are facing pressure from i) a decline in methanol prices on the back of weak oil prices, as well as ii) a slowdown in construction activities within Saudi Arabia, where Chemanol's products are highly exposed. We continue to see heightened levels of risk behind Chemanol's operations and think that the company will continue to be loss-making throughout the year. On top of that, the full extent of higher feedstock prices has yet to be seen as the company is still enjoying a grace period for gas prices, which should end during 2Q2016. Accordingly, driven by the weak operations, along with a stretched balance sheet, we reiterate our concerns on the company's liquidity position and think that the company will have a challenging year ahead in managing its repayments to debt holders; hence, we maintain our Sell rating on the stock. (Earnings release, Ahmed Hazem Maher, Yousef Husseini)

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