BSF 1Q16 first glance: Earnings rise 14% Q-o-Q; ahead of estimates
Our take on the results: A strong set of earnings, though as expected balance sheet growth was sluggish. We estimate that net interest spreads improved by 4bps Q-o-Q, which in our view were likely helped by better liquidity management and asset re-pricing. Non-interest income recovered strongly, which according to the announcement was due to better fee and forex income. According to the announcement, investment income was lower – trading income was lower, while there were losses on the non-trading investments. Provisioning trends appear to have remained benign – we estimate cost of risk of only 13bps in 1Q2016. However, balance sheet growth was sluggish with loans inching up by only 1.2% Q-o-Q, while deposits were flat Q-o-Q. We rate BSF as one of the more defensive plays on credit quality and geared to a higher interest rate environment. BSF remains our top pick in the sector, but maintain our view that 2016 is likely to be challenging. Main positives: 1) Better net interest spreads (+4 bps Q-o-Q); Strong non-interest income (+16% Q-o-Q); 2) Provisioning trends remain benign (estimated annualized cost of risk of 13bps). Main negatives: 1) Sluggish loan growth (+1.2% Q-o-Q); 2) deposits flat Q-o-Q. (Murad Ansari, Company) Banque Saudi Fransi: SAR25.34 as of 11 April 2015, Rating: Buy, FV: SAR34.00 per share, MCap: USD8,145 million, BSFR AB / 1050.SE
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