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01-Feb-2016

ADCB 4Q15 first glance: Strong fee income compensates for pressure on spreads

Net profit down 1.2% Q-o-Q, meets expectations. ADCB reported a net profit of AED1,189 million for 4Q2015, -1.2% Q-o-Q and +16.3% Y-o-Y. The bank’s earnings came in-line with our expectations of AED1,211 million (Bloomberg consensus of AED 1,184 million). Management proposed a cash dividend of AED0.45/share (payout c45%) versus AED0.40/share in 2014 (our expectation was AED0.50/share).   Our view of the results: A decent set of results. Earnings were in-line as stronger-than-expected fee income compensated for net interest spread weakness. The bank posted strong deposit growth of +10.4% Q-o-Q and +13.9% Y-o-Y, which helped improve liquidity: LDR improved to 107% from 116% in 3Q2015. Spreads were the only area of weakness as the strong deposit mobilisation effort drove up the cost of funds. ADCB’s provisioning rose (+66.6% Q-o-Q), however cost of risk at 25bps continues to be low and credit quality metrics remain satisfactory. YTD, ADCB is down c9.0% versus c7.0% of MSCI EM Banks index. It trades at a 2015e P/BV of c1.4x. While we expect  provisioning to rise in 2016, we believe ADCB has built an adequate provision buffer -  NPL coverage at 129% and GP reserve at 1.89% to cope with potential stress. Moreover, it is well placed in a higher rates environment owing to its superior CASA mix ( 44% of deposits) and swift re-pricing ability (nearly two-thirds of the bank’s loan book re-prices in three months). We have a Buy rating on ADCB.   Main positives: Decent loan growth (+2.0% Q-o-Q, +9.3% Y-o-Y); ii) Strong deposit growth (+10.4% Q-o-Q, +13.9% Y-o-Y); and iii) Solid fee income growth (+15.2% Q-o-Q, +11.0% Y-o-Y). Main negatives: Spreads come under pressure (2.69% in 4Q2015 versus 2.94% in 3Q2015)  

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